Miami’s commercial real estate market is facing a severe supply constraint that has dramatically reduced the availability of off-market deals, according to veteran broker Irene Dakota. Where brokers once relied on a steady pipeline of unlisted land and property opportunities, that channel has nearly dried up, forcing a reevaluation of traditional deal sourcing strategies.
“Very different,” says Dakota, Senior Commercial Advisor at Metro 1 Commercial, when asked about the current state of off-market activity compared to five years ago. “A lot of the land on the warehouses that I built was off market, I would say about 75 percent of them. Today, that is hard. I think maybe I’ve had one this year, harder to find, especially in Miami-Dade.”
Dakota’s experience points to a market that has fundamentally changed in how properties are transferred from owner to buyer. The implications are significant for developers and investors who, until recently, counted on proprietary deal flow as a competitive edge.
Supply Exhaustion and Legacy Ownership
Dakota attributes the sharp decline in off-market opportunities to a straightforward problem: much of Miami’s developable land has already changed hands or is controlled by families and long-term holders who are unwilling to sell at market prices.
Dakota says the core issue is a lack of available land. Much of what remains is family-owned, and owners are often unwilling to sell at realistic prices.
Miami land values have risen sharply over the past decade, increasing from roughly $25 per square foot to between $100 and $150 in many areas. Dakota notes that earlier sales required significant effort to persuade long-time owners to sell, but today those same owners anchor their expectations to past market highs rather than current conditions.
As a result, large portions of developable land remain held by owners who have controlled properties for decades and see little urgency to transact, reinforcing the supply constraint shaping today’s market.
The Off-Market Pricing Disconnect
Dakota challenges the prevailing belief that off-market transactions deliver better pricing for sellers by avoiding public marketing and bidding wars.
“They think they’re going to get a better deal,” Dakota says of sellers who opt for private negotiations. “In reality, you’re not. You’re getting whatever that person wants to sell his property for. There’s no competition. I mean, you can try that angle, you won’t always succeed.”
Without competitive tension, she explains, off-market deals often stall as buyers and sellers remain far apart on price, resulting in extended holding periods and few completed transactions.
Geographic Limitations Shape Opportunity
The scarcity of land in Miami-Dade has pushed some market participants to look beyond the urban core. Dakota, however, is selective about where she pursues new opportunities, noting that while land is available to the west, her focus remains on expansion to the north rather than westward.
While Dakota does not detail the reasons, her comments underscore that not all directions of expansion offer equal appeal, likely due to differences in infrastructure, demand, or future growth prospects.
Hotel Deals: Complexity Drives Failures
Dakota’s experience with hotel transactions illustrates why off-market deals are less successful in more complex asset classes. She notes that hotel deals are typically pursued off market, but often struggle to reach completion due to long timelines and limited buyer follow-through.
The complexity of hotel acquisitions introduces multiple points of failure, including extensive due diligence and prolonged decision-making. Dakota adds that deals frequently stall as buyers lose interest over time, particularly when approvals require committee decisions rather than a single decision-maker.
Dakota’s experience suggests that off-market transactions are most effective for straightforward deals with motivated, decisive buyers, rather than complicated acquisitions requiring group decision-making and lengthy evaluation.
What Still Moves Off Market
Currently, Dakota sees shopping centers and raw land as the most actively pursued off-market categories, but even these are increasingly difficult to source. The market has split: properties that are truly for sale are listed and move quickly, while those that remain off-market often do so because they are overpriced or entangled in ownership disputes or other complications.
Impact on Institutional Investors
For institutional buyers and developers, Dakota’s observations indicate that the era of easy off-market sourcing in Miami’s urban core may be over. The market is becoming more transparent and efficient, reducing the value of information asymmetry. Success now depends more on execution, financial resources, and operational skill than on privileged access to off-market opportunities.
Metro 1 Commercial’s founder, Tony Cho, built the firm’s reputation by securing off-market land in neighborhoods like Wynwood and Magic City before they became targets for institutional capital. Dakota joined the firm in 2005 and began focusing on new construction warehouses after 2017, using her network to source land for development.
Whether off-market sourcing can make a comeback may depend on the emergence of new, overlooked submarkets or a change in seller expectations. For now, Dakota’s experience reflects a market that has matured past the days when secret deals and back-channel negotiations consistently produced superior results. In today’s Miami, most meaningful opportunities are already in plain sight.
